(24.01.2024) Economic conditions have stabilized in Switzerland, albeit with caution. Raiffeisen's SME PMI index recorded 50.9 points in December 2023, placing it above the expansion threshold. However, the bank has expressed disappointment with the overall performance in 2023 and anticipates a mixed outlook in the coming months.
In December, the SME PMI index increased by 4.1 points, marking its first entry above the expansion threshold since September 2023. The component related to order books (48.8 / +4 points) showed an upward trend in December but still remains within the contraction zone. This slight improvement, however, does not signify an increase in orders but rather a slowdown in the downward trend.
Furthermore, both the "production" component (56.1 / +7.6) and "employment" component (55.6 / +11.2) returned to the expansion zone for the first time since September. However, according to the study authors, this strength observed in December reflects the typical year-end economic acceleration.
The decline in order volume has primarily affected export-oriented businesses. However, the overall economic conditions abroad remain unfavorable: industrial activity in the United States and the Eurozone continues to be sluggish.
According to Raiffeisen, the recession in the industrial sector is expected to stabilize, but prospects for a recovery in the coming months remain slim, given the current monetary policies in place in Switzerland and its major economic partners. The bank anticipates moderate economic activity in the United States and Europe, consequently estimating that the Swiss industry sector will remain under pressure for the majority of 2024.
Last modification 24.01.2024
