(09.07.2025) Global economic headwinds continue to weigh on Switzerland’s economy. Growth is expected to slow to 1.1% of GDP in 2025, before rising to 1.4% in 2026 – still below its potential – according to the umbrella organization Economiesuisse.
Amid ongoing uncertainties linked to U.S. tariff barriers and persistent geopolitical tensions, Economiesuisse’s baseline scenario anticipates a moderate increase in customs duties (up to 10%) and a rise in protectionism, though without any major escalation. In a survey conducted by the organization in May 2025, 25% of companies cited the introduction of new tariffs as the main economic risk, while 24% pointed to general macroeconomic uncertainty. This was followed by weakening demand (21%) and excessive bureaucracy (15%).
According to Economiesuisse, the strong trade figures seen in the first quarter of 2025 conceal a more complex reality. Businesses around the world increased inventories ahead of the anticipated tariff hikes in April. As a result, experts fear that international demand may decline in the months ahead, leading to a drop in Swiss exports.
The global climate is thus dampening economic prospects. Experts expect a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, reaching 3% by the end of 2025 (up from 2.8% in May), and 3.1% in 2026. Inflation, meanwhile, is projected to ease to 0.3% in 2025 (from 1.1% in 2024), though it may pick up again in 2026, averaging 0.8%.
Last modification 09.07.2025
