(03.08.2022) Swiss exports are expected to continue to grow in the second half of 2022. The Switzerland Global Enterprise (S-GE) index, which measures the export expectations of Swiss SMEs, stands at 66.6 points, while the Credit Suisse export barometer is at 1.49.
However, the outlook is not as encouraging as it was in 2021, when the S-GE index was above 75 and the Credit Suisse export barometer was above 3. Since then, both values have fallen steadily. This slowdown is not due to a weakening of demand, which remains strong, but rather to supply problems caused by the war in Ukraine and China's so-called "Zero Covid" policy.
Of the companies surveyed, only 17% expect their exports to decline in the second half of the year, which is a slight improvement from the previous six months. However, nearly a third of them expect stagnation.
In the first half of the year, 66% of companies had forecast export growth, but only 56% actually achieved it. One-third (33%) ended up with a relatively low export growth rate of between 1% and 10%, one-sixth recorded a rate of between 10% and 25%, and one in twelve companies increased their exports by more than 25%. Conversely, 22% maintained their level of exploration, and 22% experienced a decline in exports in H1 2022.
In 2021, the US was Switzerland's most important trading partner: Swiss exports to the world's largest economy amounted to CHF 47 billion. Germany, meanwhile, remains the most important market for Swiss exporters (76% expect to export to Germany in the next six months).
Last modification 03.08.2022
