War in the Middle East could slow recovery

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(22.04.2026) Swiss industrial SMEs are continuing their recovery. Between February and March 2026, the Raiffeisen SME PMI rose by 1.5 points to 55.0 points. However, the geopolitical environment is beginning to weigh on investment plans.

Between February and March 2026, the "order books" component increased sharply from 55.6 to 59.4 points, placing it nearly 10 points above the level recorded in December 2025 (49.6 points). Domestically oriented companies were the main drivers of this rebound, although exporting SMEs have confirmed the expansion of their business activity initiated in February.

"Delivery times" also rose significantly over the same period, from 50.2 to 55.4 points. This reflects improved capacity utilization, but also ongoing tensions in supply chains. Compared with February 2026, the "production" component remained unchanged in March at 55.0 points. Two components declined: "employment" edged down slightly from 51.0 to 50.2 points, and "inventories" fell from 53.0 to 50.4 points.

In a context of instability, notably marked by the war in the Middle East, initial signs of a slowdown are nevertheless beginning to emerge. Nearly 40% of the SMEs surveyed anticipate negative repercussions for their investment plans.

In addition, almost half of exporting SMEs report being significantly affected by the sustained rise in energy prices. Often tied to long-term energy contracts, smaller domestically oriented firms absorb these fluctuations with a time lag. By contrast, internationally oriented companies, which procure electricity on the open market and remain dependent on international freight transport, are directly affected. The continued strength of the Swiss franc is also weighing on the resilience of exporting SMEs.


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Last modification 22.04.2026

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