(29.04.2026) Global economic activity continued its moderate growth in April, amid uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Both indicators from the KOF Swiss Economic Institute remained above the 100-point threshold.
The coincident indicator (Global Coincident Economic Barometer) measures economic conditions at a given moment. In April 2026, it recorded a slight decline of 0.2 points to 102.1 points compared with March. The six-month outlook indicator (Global Leading Economic Barometer) rose by 1.7 points to 102.9 points. These figures indicate moderate global expansion.
Current global economic activity varies considerably across regions. Supported by strong performances in the United States and Canada, the Western Hemisphere is contributing positively to overall conditions. Europe and the "Asia, Pacific and Africa" region, however, are dampening overall performance (–0.3 and –0.1 points, respectively, on the coincident indicator).
At 102.9 points, the six-month outlook indicator reached its highest level since March 2022 (103.1 points). This result is driven in particular by the Western Hemisphere (+1.2 points, to 109.6 points), which recorded its strongest performance since August 2021 (116.7 points). The "Asia, Pacific and Africa" region also contributed to this positive trend (+0.5 points), while Europe remained stable.
All sectors (construction, industry, trade and services) showed improving prospects in April. Wholesale and retail trade (113.9 points), as well as construction (105 points), reached their highest levels since 2022.
Participants in the study consider the conflict in the Middle East to be temporary, with effects expected to remain mainly regional. The repercussions for the global economy are expected to remain relatively limited.
Last modification 29.04.2026
