(13.07.2022) Despite uncertainties, the Swiss economy is expected to be robust. ETHZ's KOF Swiss Economic Institute predicts a 2.7% increase in GDP and continuing high levels of consumer spending, despite inflation hovering around 3%.
The Swiss economy is expected to continue its growth this year and then slow slightly to 1.6% in 2023. This is attributed to the expected slowdown in the global economy.
Inflation is expected to remain relatively low compared to neighboring countries, stabilizing at 2.6% year-on-year. The KOF expects a 1.5% increase in inflation in 2023. Switzerland, which is mainly powered by nuclear and hydroelectric energy, is less dependent on gas and oil than other European countries and is thus able to keep its energy bill down. In addition, the appreciation of the Swiss franc is making imports cheaper.
Employment is also expected to increase by about 2% this year, but the unemployment rate is expected to stop declining as early as the third quarter of 2022 and will stabilize at a lower level.
However, several uncertainties still remain and portend more worrying scenarios: on the one hand, a possible resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic this autumn or the emergence of a new variant could lead to new health restrictions and constitute yet another growth check. On the other hand, there could be a debt crisis in Europe, where a rise in bond yields could severely damage the economies of southern Europe and lead to a general recession in the eurozone.
Last modification 13.07.2022