Inflation and monetary policy divide economists

Facade of the Swiss National Bank.

(11.05.2022) Inflation and monetary policy trends in Switzerland over the next few years are rather uncertain, the ETH Zurich Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) and the NZZ report in their latest survey, which is based on the opinions of 110 economists interviewed. 

In April 2022, inflation in Switzerland reached 2.5%, the highest rate since the 2009 financial crisis. Reasons for this price instability include energy shortages and high production costs. According to 63% of the experts surveyed, this situation is temporary, but the remaining 37% believe that it could be more lasting. Three-quarters of them expect that inflation will slow down and return to the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) target range of 0% to 2% within five years.

Furthermore, two distinct camps are emerging regarding the SNB's monetary policy. Almost half of the respondents consider it appropriate, while 44% find it too expansionary. These results reflect the findings of the 2019 KOF-NZZ survey.

In addition, more than half of the experts surveyed are expecting a positive key interest rate in the next five years, while 38% expect it to stabilize at around 0%. These forecasts are in stark contrast to 2019. At the time, only one in five economists expected key interest rates to return to positive values in the subsequent five years. 

However, a large majority (94%) believe that this will not happen until the European Central Bank (ECB) raises its key interest rates.


Last modification 11.05.2022

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