(12.01.2022) The Swiss economy is expected to grow more slowly than anticipated. The Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) has revised its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth downwards to 2.9% for 2022. Last October, the expected increase was still at 3.6%.
The slowdown of the COVID-19 pandemic and the number of vaccinations hinted at rapid growth in GDP in 2022. However, with the fifth wave and the appearance of new variants, growth expectations are being lowered. In its most negative scenario, the KOF forecasts a GDP increase of just 2.8%.
The resurgence of the epidemic suggests a decline in economic activity at the start of the year. Switzerland's main trading partners are likely to follow a similar trend. However, the KOF forecasts a decline in infection rates worldwide in the spring. This slowdown in the pandemic is predicted to be accompanied by a more sustained economic dynamic.
While inflation rates rose sharply in 2021, the KOF expects the situation to stabilize. Inflation is likely to have peaked in November 2021 and inflation rates will gradually decline over the next few years (2022: 0,8%; 2023: 0,4%).
Forecasts for 2021 have been revised upwards. While KOF experts were predicting GDP growth of 3.2% for the past year, the increase is more likely to reach 3.4%. In 2023, growth is projected to be between 2.1 and 2.4%.
Last modification 12.01.2022
