Wages expected to rise only slightly next year
(23.09.2026) The 2026 wage negotiations are expected to be broadly satisfactory. Companies anticipate an average increase in nominal wages of +1.2% by July 2027, according to the quarterly survey conducted by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich.
This increase nevertheless remains below last year’s figure (+1.3%) and confirms a downward trend in nominal wage growth expectations observed since the survey was launched in 2022. Compared with 2025, far fewer companies are also considering wage increases of +2% or more in 2026. Half of the companies surveyed expect growth of between +0.6% and +1.4% in 2027. The median remains unchanged at +1%.
Two factors explain this slowdown in expectations. The Swiss labor market has deteriorated since 2023, with unemployment rising slightly and the shortage of skilled workers becoming less acute. Inflation also remained close to zero last year before rising again due to the war in Iran.
Employees’ purchasing power should broadly be maintained. KOF forecasts inflation of +0.5% over the next twelve months. If these forecasts prove accurate, this would result in real wage growth of +0.7%. This would exceed the average recorded between 2014 and 2023 (+0.2% per year). Companies, however, anticipate higher inflation of +1.1%, which would correspond to an increase of just +0.1%.
Differences between sectors remain significant. Retail, manufacturing and the financial sector anticipate the smallest increases, ranging from +0.8% to +1.0%. Banks and the chemical industry have also revised their forecasts downward, due to the integration of Credit Suisse into UBS and tariff pressures from the United States. The construction sector is an exception, with a nominal increase of +2.0% expected (compared with 1.6% in 2025), driven by the shortage of skilled workers and strong demand.