Anticipated contraction in foreign trade
(22.03.2023) Swiss exports stagnated in 2022 and will likely remain subdued this year. The Allianz Trade Export Forecast stood at 1.26 points in February 2023, up 0.14 points from the last measurement in November 2022.
For the whole of 2022, exports stagnated in real terms. Despite a slightly more favorable trade situation at the beginning of 2023, due in particular to the improved supply chain situation and the end of China's "Zero Covid" policy, Allianz specialists expect Swiss exports to contract over the next six to twelve months.
In 2022, foreign trade grew significantly in nominal terms, reaching an all-time high of CHF 278.6 billion in exports, while imports jumped by 16.8%. However, this extraordinary growth was largely driven by price inflation. After adjustment for this, export growth in 2022 was only 0.1% and import growth 0.7%, indicating stagnation rather than significant growth.
Allianz Trade forecasts that real economic growth will be limited to 0.6% in 2023. Foreign trade will remain at below-average levels, and may even decline slightly "due to ongoing global uncertainties," according to Andreas Jobst, head of macroeconomic and capital markets research at Allianz.
Another factor corroborating this mixed forecast is that the volume of orders contracted by 7.4 percentage points in January 2023, suggesting a slowdown in production and, consequently, a decline in trade.